WTPN21 PHNC 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (INVEST 94E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141551ZSEP22//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151221ZSEP22//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 106.0W TO 18.0N 107.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 106.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 108.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.3W , APPROXIMATELY 1204 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151201Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTLY 
OBSCURED YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE, AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 141600).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
161500Z.
4. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PHNC 151230) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 95.9W.
//
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