WTPN22 PHNC 151230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141600Z SEP 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 141600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 95.9W TO 17.1N 103.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 95.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 
95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1688 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND AN 150808 AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW 
SCATTERED, DEEP CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING 
INTO A LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
161230Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.6W
//
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