WTPN21 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 108.8W TO 15.0N 105.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 108.6W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 
108.6W, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTH EAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTI SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141130Z GOES-17 IR IMAGE DEPICT A 
PARTLY OBSCURED YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH DEEP BUILDING 
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A PREVIOUS 140453 ASCAT METOP-C SHOWS A CLEAR 
CIRCULATION WITH TWENTY KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
151600Z.
//
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