ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120152ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZSEP2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120153ZSEP2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12SEP22 0000Z, TYPHOON 14W (MUIFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 
124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 12SEP22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (MERBOK) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.4N 161.4E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.8N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM SITS BELOW A WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL LOW WITH LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS 
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 120200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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