WTPN21 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 22.9N 139.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 139.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.8N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM SITS BELOW A WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL LOW WITH LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130200Z.
//
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