ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC 
OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060321ZSEP2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06SEP22 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (HINNAMNOR) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
36.5N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM NORTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.4N 139.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 052149Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A 
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS 
WITH A COMPLEX MERGER OCCURRING WITH INVEST 92W AND GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 
060330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.5N 
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 060042Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A WEAK LLC WITH A 
SWATH OF 15KT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST 
(30-31C), OFFSET BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE MEANDERING GENERALLY NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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