WTPN22 PHNC 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021930ZSEP20 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 021930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 96.6W TO 15.2N 104.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 97.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 
97.1W, APPROXIMATELY 392NM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH 
ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HIDDEN BENEATH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE ON 
INVEST 93W CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK LINE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 
021930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
041930Z.//
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