WTPN22 PHNC 021930 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 94.8W TO 14.6N 102.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 95.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 95.4W, APPROXIMATELY 129NM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERYAND A 021422Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPTICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INVEST 93W WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHWEST NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 031930Z. // NNNN