WTPN21 PHNC 011330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311321ZAUG22// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 109.7W TO 22.1N 113.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 109.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 104.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 109.8W, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED BY MODERATE OUTFLOW, WEAK (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON NORTHWESTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF BEING THE OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 311330). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 021330Z.// NNNN