WTPN21 PHNC 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 103.6W TO 19.0N 109.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 104.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 
104.1W, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311240Z GOES WEST IR IMAGE DEPICTS 
POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA 
FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL TRACK NORTHWEST AND 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011330Z.
//
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