ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280351AUG2022// 
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.7N 149.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM 
EAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 30-35KT 
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM (30-31C) 
SST AND LOW (5-10KT) VWS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE 
OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND IMPROVING POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY HANDLING THE SYSTEM WITH 
MODERATE DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER THEY GENERALLY AGREE 
ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
280400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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