ABPW10 PGTW 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211600Z-220600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: 
      (1) AT 21AUG22 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER TH PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT NEAR 17.4N 127.3E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.0N 157.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 814 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT 97W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED INTO A TIGHT, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH BANDS OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. A 210239Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED LOW LEVEL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 2230Z AND 1930Z SHOWED NO CLOSED LLCC AT THAT TIME AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20-25 KNOTS TO THE EAST AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WITH IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY, DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER TOP OF 97W. CIMSS WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES ARE IN THE LOW (5-10 KNOTS) RANGE AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29C). WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WHAT SHEAR THERE IS PUTTING SOME PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION. DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE THAT 97W WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IN A SWITCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, GFS IS NOW LESS EXCITED ABOUT 97WS DEVELOPMENT, NOW PEAKING IT AT JUST 1004 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 36 AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF, WHICH SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A WEAK SYSTEM FOLLOWING AN S-SHAPED TRACK TO THE NORTH, REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO WARNING STATUS.//
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