ABPW10 PGTW 210800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210800Z-220600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 17.5N 128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE LLCC HAS BEEN TUCKING IN AND OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS YET TO REMAIN ENSCONCED UNDER THE CONVECTION FOR LONG. HOWEVER, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS TIGHTENED UP, AS EVIDENCED IN THE ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL, AND THE RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, WITH THE SHEAR OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM NOW ESTIMATED AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, DOWN ABOUT 5 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC WATERS PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY HINDRANCE IS THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING THE CONVECTION OFF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS REMAIN STRONGLY DIVERGENT HOWEVER, ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON OR LUZON STRAIT, THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER CROSSING OVER THE ISLAND OR PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD AFTER PASSAGE THROUGH THE STRAIT, WITH MEMBERS SHOWING POTENTIAL TRACKS BETWEEN HONG KONG TO CENTRAL TAIWAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST A QUICK INTENSIFICATION UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE LUZON REGION FOLLOWED BY SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A(WTPN21 210800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.4N 157.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT 97W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED INTO A TIGHT, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH BANDS OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. A 210239Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED LOW LEVEL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 2230Z AND 1930Z SHOWED NO CLOSED LLCC AT THAT TIME AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20-25 KNOTS TO THE EAST AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WITH IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY, DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER TOP OF 97W. CIMSS WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES ARE IN THE LOW (5-10 KNOTS) RANGE AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29C). WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WHAT SHEAR THERE IS PUTTING SOME PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION. DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE THAT 97W WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IN A SWITCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, GFS IS NOW LESS EXCITED ABOUT 97WS DEVELOPMENT, NOW PEAKING IT AT JUST 1004 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 36 AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF, WHICH SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A WEAK SYSTEM FOLLOWING AN S-SHAPED TRACK TO THE NORTH, REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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