ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA AB JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FLARING TO THE SOUTH, WITH THE LLCC STARTING TO TUCK UNDER THE FAR NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF. A 210030Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED THAT 93W HAS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH AN EXPANSIVE 20 KNOT WIND FIELD IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND HIGHER WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 93W REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THOUGH DOWNSTREAM THE WIND VECTORS STRONGLY DIVERGE, SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE CENTER, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. SSTS ARE VERY WARM, AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER A REGION OF CONSIDERABLE OHC AND CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE NEAR-TERM THEN TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT OR NORTHERN LUZON REGION BY AROUND TAU 72. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS MOVES THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER. THE GFS DEEPENS THE SYSTEM TO 988 MB BY TAU 48 BUT ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER, NOT REACHING 996 MB UNTIL TAU 72. THE NAVGEM MEANWHILE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND NOW JOINED THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW NOTABLE CROSS TRACK VARIABILITY AFTER PASSING THE LUZON STRAIT WITH SOLUTIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HONG KONG AND TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.4N 157.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT 97W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED INTO A TIGHT, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH BANDS OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. A 210239Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED LOW LEVEL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 2230Z AND 1930Z SHOWED NO CLOSED LLCC AT THAT TIME AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20-25 KNOTS TO THE EAST AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WITH IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY, DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER TOP OF 97W. CIMSS WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES ARE IN THE LOW (5-10 KNOTS) RANGE AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29C). WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WHAT SHEAR THERE IS PUTTING SOME PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION. DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE THAT 97W WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IN A SWITCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, GFS IS NOW LESS EXCITED ABOUT 97WS DEVELOPMENT, NOW PEAKING IT AT JUST 1004 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 36 AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF, WHICH SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A WEAK SYSTEM FOLLOWING AN S-SHAPED TRACK TO THE NORTH, REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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