ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.6N 131.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 538 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY ON THE 
SOUTHERN SIDE OF 93W.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND 30C SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN BUT HAVE DISPARITY IN THE 
INTENSIFICATION OF 93W WITH ECMWF BEING THE SURPRISE AGGRESSOR HERE 
AND GFS BEING MORE LAID BACK. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE HIGH MEMBER 
GROUPING AND SHOW 93W GETTING TO THAT OF STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 96. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 
159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE 
INITIAL POSITION OF INVEST 97W HAS BEEN RELOCATED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE 
EAST FROM THE 0000Z STARTING POINT. THE INITIAL 0000Z POSITION WAS 
PLACED ON A BROAD, EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH A CURVED BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE SWATH ALONG 
THE EASTERN EDGE TO SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEWLY CENTERED POSITION OF 
INVEST 97W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVEST LIES IN A 
HIGHLY FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT DUE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM BEING ON THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), MODERATE 
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THOUGH THE SHEAR IS MOSTLY ON THE 
WEST SIDE OF THE CIRC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE 
WEST SIDE OF THE TUTT, AND 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL DIRECTION BUT NOT INTENSIFICATION OF 97W. 
AS IS TYPICAL, GFS IS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT AS IT 
DEVELOPS THE INVEST INTO A  DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF 
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MORE OF A 72 HOUR DEVELOPMENT CYCLE BEFORE 
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE POSITIONING 
RELATIVE TO THE TUTT, THE GFS SOLUTION CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED HOWEVER.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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