ABIO10 PGTW 181800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 181800Z-191800ZAUG2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180851ZAUG2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INVEST 99B WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST INDIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN