ABIO10 PGTW 180930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/180930Z-181800ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180851ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.9N 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH 
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 
99B IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SMALL POCKET OF 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 180359Z ASCAT-B 
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 35KTS IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE TEJ, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INVEST 99B WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TOWARD KOLKATA AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. INVEST 
99B IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS JUST 
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF 
LOWER VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1). TO HIGH.//
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