ABIO10 PGTW 180200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
CORRECTED/180200Z-181800ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.4N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 99B IS 
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED 
BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
INDICATE INVEST 99B WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH GFS BEING THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE FOR CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSITY. BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF 
ENSEMBLES HAVE MEMBERS THAT SHOW POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT WHILE INVEST 
99B TRANSITS THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. HIGH VWS FROM THE TEJ IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY 
OF A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 29 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INVEST NUMBER IN PARA 1.B.(1) 
TO 99B.//
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