ABIO10 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/180200Z-181800ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.4N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 99B IS 
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED 
BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
INDICATE INVEST 99B WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A CIRCULATION, 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FOR CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSITY. BOTH 
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE MEMBERS THAT SHOW POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT 
WHILE INVEST 99B TRANSITS THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS 
FROM THE TEJ AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, 
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 29 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO  MEDIUM.//
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