ABIO10 PGTW 171800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 171800Z-181800ZAUG2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.4N 94.3E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DISORGANIZED AND DEEPENING MASS OF CONVECTIONIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INVEST 99B CHARACTERIZED BY WARM WATERS (29C), STRONG LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE IT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE (10-15KTS) AS THE AXIS OF STRONG TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) WINDS ALOFT MOVES SOUTH. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS FROM THE TEJ AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST INVEST 99B WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO A STRONG TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN