ABIO10 PGTW 171330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/171330Z-171800ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N 
95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DISORGANIZED BUT 
DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING FROM THE SOUTH 
FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OVER SOUTHERN 
MYANMAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
INVEST 99B TO INTENSIFY IN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, WARM 
(29C) WATERS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. WIND SHEAR, WHILE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLY HIGH, IS FORECAST TO 
LOWER TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS (10-15KTS) AS THE AXIS OF STRONG 
TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) WINDS ALOFT MOVES SOUTH. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING 
GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT MEMBER GROUPINGS 
TAKING 99B NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AND QUICKLY 
CROSSING THE NORTHERN BOB  BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE 
INDIA/BANGLADESH COASTLINE BY TAU 60. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS FROM THE TEJ 
AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST INVEST 99B WILL RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO AT LEAST STRONG TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR 
WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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