WTPN21 PHNC 130730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (INVEST 90E)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120721ZAUG22// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 109.5W TO 19.0N 113.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.7W, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POORLY DEFINED CONVECTION. A 130503Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS DEPICTS 15-20KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY MARGINAL (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90E WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 120730). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140730Z.// NNNN