WTPN21 PHNC 120730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 106.8W TO 17.3N 112.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 107.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N 
107.2W, APPROXIMATELY 524 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120107Z SSMIS 
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
DISTURBANCE REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90E TRACKING 
WEST-NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING TO AT LEAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH 
BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SHEAR BY TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130730Z.//
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