ABIO10 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/120130Z-121800ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.2N 69.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 
98A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 69.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 
66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. A 
111706Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWED A FIELD OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTORS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS ¬¬FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A FULLY OBSCURE 
AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIRCULATION 
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING. CURRENT 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM IS MOSTLY INTO 
THE ARABIAN SEA AND CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES 98A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING 98A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOPING OVER THE 
ARABIAN SEA NEAR PAKISTAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 21 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM
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