ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.2N 
69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111316Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION OVER 
LAND WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE 
CIRCULATION IS STILL PARTIALLY OVER LAND BUT IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OVER 
THE GULF OF KUTCH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
98A IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98A WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND 
DEVELOP OVER THE ARABIAN SEA WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DIFFERENT LEVELS 
OF DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFERENT FORECAST TRACKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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