WTPN21 PHNC 110730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 103.3W TO 14.3N 108.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 103.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.4N 103.7W, APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, 
MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110119Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH LOW LEVEL RAIN 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
90E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
120730Z.//
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