ABPW10 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110200Z-110600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110121ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.8N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTH 
OF KYOTO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY 
WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A 101951Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE 
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
LLCC. MID-UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHEAST IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO 
DEVELOPMENT, BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS OPPRESSIVE VWS IS FORECAST 
TO DECREASE. AS THE VWS DECREASES THE SYSTEMS LLCC MAY BE ALLOWED TO ONCE 
AGAIN REFORM DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER. BY TAU 24 NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 10-15KTS VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 30-31 
DEG CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
STRENGTHEN AS IT RECURVES TOWARDS JAPAN. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE INDICATES VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND RECURVES TO THE EAST 
OVER JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110130) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.////
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