WTPN21 PGTW 110130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.6N 136.8E TO 34.7N 136.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 28.7N 136.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 
381 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY 
WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A  101951Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE 
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
LLCC. MID-UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT 
BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS OPPRESSIVE VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE. 
AS THE VWS DECREASES THE SYSTEMS LLCC MAY BE ALLOWED TO ONCE AGAIN REFORM 
DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER. BY TAU 24 NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
LOW 10-15KTS VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 30-31 DEG CELSIUS SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AS IT 
RECURVES TOWARDS JAPAN. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE 
VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND RECURVES TO THE EAST OVER JAPAN. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
120130Z.
//
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