ABPW10 PGTW 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101430Z-110600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.9N 110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM 
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 100902Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM'S BROAD CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED 200-300NM TO THE EAST. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING BACH LONGVI, 60NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT 
POSITION, INDICATE 5-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE 
DEGRADED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. INTERACTION WITH LAND IS ALSO 
HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON DEPRESSION 
WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL OVER 
NORTHERN VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. 
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN 
DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 101400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.8N 142.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 533NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 100452Z GMI 
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER WITH WEAKER, 
MORE FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100052Z ASCAT-
C BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15 TO 
20 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED REGIONS OF 25 KNOTS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH 
AND EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, 
CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH 
MIXED DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN 
WITH LIMITED 25-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE  
GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CANCELED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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