ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 18.3N 112.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A 
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH 
EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A 
WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 
A 092251Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE 
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 100235Z ASCAT-C IMAGE INDICATE 25 
TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET 
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS HINDERING 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL 
CONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN BRIEFLY BEFORE LANDFALL 
OVER VIETNAM. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 091400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.8N 142.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 533NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 100452Z GMI 
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER WITH WEAKER, 
MORE FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100052Z ASCAT-
C BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15 TO 
20 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED REGIONS OF 25 KNOTS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH 
AND EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, 
CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH 
MIXED DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN 
WITH LIMITED 25-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE  
GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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