ABPW10 PGTW 091530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091530Z-100600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.3N 112.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM’S 
CENTER. A 091018Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD, 
BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING 
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS CONTRACTING 
AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110-120 NM, TYPICAL FOR MONSOON 
DEPRESSIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH 
LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST 
VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT DAY. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO 
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.2N 145.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 660NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
A REGION OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A 090837Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING BUT WEAK OVERALL STRUCTURE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS FIGHTING THE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW.      
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGES FROM LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH MIXED DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF AND
NAVGEM SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH 25-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE   
GFS SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR INVEST IN PARA. 1.B.(1). UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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