WTPN21 PGTW 091400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAUG22// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 112.8E TO 21.3N 108.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 091330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM’S CENTER. A 091018Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS GRADUALLY IMPROVING BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A BROAD, BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS CONTRACTING AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110-120 NM, TYPICAL FOR MONSOON DEPRESSIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 081400). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101400Z.// NNNN