ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 112.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM 
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THESE MESOVORTICES ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY 
ABOUT A CENTROID (REPRESENTING THE CURRENT POSITION) WITH EXTENSIVE 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING 
INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT ASCAT DATA AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
APPROXIMATELY 150-200 NM, TYPICAL FOR MONSOON DEPRESSIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 
29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTH OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN CURVES WEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF TONKIN. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 081400) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.2N 
145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 
090352Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LLC WITH CHAOTIC BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION AND NO 
DISCERNIBLE CENTER. A 082330Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A 
DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER 
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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