ABPW10 PGTW 081400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081400Z-090600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3N 112.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM 
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE AND 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD, DISORGANIZED MONSOON DEPRESSION IN 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHICH IS STEADILY CONSOLIDATING. THE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) WAS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TO BE GREATER THAN 150NM, 
BUT A 081200Z SHIP OBSERVATION OF 32 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 110NM TO THE 
SOUTHWEST SUGGESTS THE RMW HAS STARTED TO SHRINK DOWN, APPROACHING THE 
TRANSITION POINT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A 081031Z 91GHZ SSMIS 
MICROWAVE REVEALED MULTIPLE WEST-EAST AND NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT AS OF YET NO DISTINCT CENTER OF CIRCULATION. 
MEANWHILE, ANIMATED EIR AND MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A SECONDARY 
CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 17.5N 118.0E, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
RAPIDLY MOVE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH 97W AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BROADER REGION INDICATE A VERY BROAD WIND 
FIELD WITH WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS, EXTENDING IN A BAND TO THE NORTH 
AS FAR AS 20N AND TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR 10N. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) 
VWS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR DEVELOPMENT, YET A 
REGION OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR (20-30KT) STRETCHING FROM HAINAN TO THE 
LUZON STRAIT, AND THE SLOW RATE OF CONSOLIDATION ARE PROVING TO BE 
STIFF BARRIERS TO MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS AGREE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 97W WILL MAINTAIN A 
BROAD WIND FIELD AS IT STARTS ITS NORTHERLY TRACK, MERGE WITH THE 
VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONSOLIDATE 
JUST ENOUGH BEFORE LANDFALL TO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A WEAK 
TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 081400) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN