ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.5N 114.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 473 NM 
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA. A 080225Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALED MONSOONAL WINDS SOUTH OF 
THE CIRCULATION WITH WIND FIELDS OF 20-30 KTS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF 
ENHANCED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST 
AND NORTHEAST. THE EXACT CENTER OF 97W HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO PIN 
DOWN, WITH THE SCATTEROMETER REVEALING A VERY DISORGANIZED REGION OF 
WEAK WINDS, GENERALLY OUTLINING AN ELONGATED, EAST-WEST ORIENTED 
REGION OF TROUGHING WITH MORE DISTINCT CENTERS POSSIBLY ON THE FAR 
WESTERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK 
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CURRENT 
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS ASSESSED AT 155NM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 
MORE OF AN EQUATORWARD FLOW ON THAT OF 97W ITSELF. SEASONAL LOW LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ADD TO THE 
LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, YET A RECENT INCREASE IN SHEAR TO 
MORE MODERATE (15-20KT) LEVELS IS FIGHTING BACK ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. 
850MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURES, ONE 
NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER OF 97W AND ANOTHER JUST WEST OF LUZON. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 97W WILL CONTINUE 
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE TURN TOWARDS HAINAN. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF CIRCULATION 
FURTHER EAST DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE WESTWARD, UNDERGOING A BRIEF BINARY INTERACTION BEFORE ULTIMATELY 
MERGING WITH INVEST 97W PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF 
CHINA OR HAINAN ISLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS 
BEEN INCREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND 
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE AND 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHETHER OR NOT THE 
SYSTEM REACHES WARNING CRITERIA WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS CONTRACTS BELOW 100NM, AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS 
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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