ABPW10 PGTW 070600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZAUG2022// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 070245Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS CAUGHT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHILE A 070000Z SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE SHOWED A BETTER ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SCS. THE TWO TOGETHER CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO DISTINCT VORTICES, ONE ASSOCIATED WITH 97W AND ANOTHER FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEALED A BROAD WIND FIELD OF 15- 20 KTS WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF ENHANCED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION, AND SOME ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 25-30KT TO THE SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE CENTRALIZED REGION OF 97W BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH, AND BROAD TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A STEADY DECREASE IN SHEAR, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KT), SEASONAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ADD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 97W IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP A LARGE WIND FIELD AND EXPECTED TO BE MORE ASYMMETRICAL AND REMINISCENT OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH HIGHER WINDS ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE SYSTEM RATHER THAN WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. MODELS SUGGEST THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH 97W WILL TRACK WESTWARD INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP IN THE CENTRAL SCS, BEFORE ULTIMATELY MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 48. UNFORTUNATELY BEYOND TAU 48, THE MONSOON DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE DOWN TO A MORE DEFINED CENTER AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA WINDS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA BY TAU 60. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN