ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AFTER PASSING 
OVER CENTRAL LUZON. A 060219Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA 
OF ROTATION WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CYCLONIC TURNING AND VORTICITY. THE 
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CENTER CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS LOCATED WEST OF LUZON, ON 
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SCATTEROMETER 
PASS REVEALS 15-20KT WIND FIELDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER 
WITH FRICTIONAL FORCES AND LAND INTERACTION IMPEDING THE CIRCULATION ON 
THE EASTERN EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE ABOVE 97W 
THAT IS PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
FIELDS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH, BUT SOMEWHAT 
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH, AND BROAD TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS WITH 
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KT), 
SEASONAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ADD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE LARGE ROTATION AND MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS 
WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ON A WESTWARD 
TRACK INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP IN THE CENTRAL SCS, 
BEFORE ULTIMATELY MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72. AT THIS POINT, 97W IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH UNTIL AFTER IT BEGINS 
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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