WTPN21 PHNC 042030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 94.6W TO 13.4N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2N 94.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 95.0W, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH 
OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
BROAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST. A 041530Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 18-23 KNOT WINDS ON THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
052030Z.//
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