ABPW10 PGTW 030930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030930Z-040600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030922ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.8N 117.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) BURIED BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND CIRRUS BLOW 
OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. A 030806Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS 
WRAPPING TOWARDS AN IMPROVING, IF SOMEWHAT STILL ILL DEFINED LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 30-31C SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  FUNNELING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE TAIWAN 
STRAIT IS ALSO IMPARTING SOME INCREASED CYCLONIC VORTICITY, HELPING THE 
LLCC TO CONSOLIDATE AND DECREASING THE TIMELINE OF DEVELOPMENT. LAND 
PROXIMITY HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A FACTOR IN SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED OF 
INTENSIFICATION BUT WILL PROVE A HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN ITS LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER.  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN IMMINENT TURN TO THE 
NORTHWEST, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG IN 
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORT PERIOD OF 
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY RAPID DISSIPATION 
ONCE ASHORE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 030930) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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