ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.4N 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BENEATH DEEP BUT 
STILL DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST 
QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. A 030227Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC 
FORMING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST, 
SUGGESTING A MORE CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH 
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND 30-31C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  FUNNELING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS 
DOWN THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ALSO IMPARTING SOME INCREASED CYCLONIC 
VORTICITY, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY 
SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND LIMITED TIME 
REMAINING OVER WATER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT 96W WILL RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 
FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS 
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA. GFS IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WITH IT 
REACHING TD STRENGTH WITHIN 12-24 HOURS WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM AGREE ON 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER BUT LACK A DEPRESSION STRENGTH WIND 
FIELD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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