ABPW10 PGTW 021230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021230Z-030600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.4N 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 119.6E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BENEATH 
THE DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND 
EAST QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED SHARP 
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING IN THE AREA, BUT NO DISTINCT CLOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 020905Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
CONVECTIVE BANDS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 
THE SPECULATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDUCIVE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 30-31C SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A DROP IN THE 24 HOUR SHEAR TENDENCY AND INCREASES 
IN 850MB VORTICITY FURTHER ADD TO THE VALUE OF DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS AGREE THAT 96W WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A DISTINCT 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR 
AS IT TAKES A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. GFS IS THE USUAL AGGRESSOR HERE 
IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH IT REACHING TD STRENGTH WITHIN 24-36 HOURS WHILE 
ECMWF AGREES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER BUT LACKS A 
DEPRESSION STRENGTH WIND FIELD. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT 
TIGHT TRACK AND INTENSITY GROUPINGS, WHICH PROVIDES INCREASED CONFIDENCE 
IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO AND LEND SUPPORT FOR UPGRADING OF 96W TO A LOW. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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