WTPN21 PGTW 311730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.6N 127.0E TO 38.2N 127.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.0N 127.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 
128.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
OF SASEBO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311302Z ASCAT-
B 25KM IMAGE SHOW AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 15-
20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGE SWATH OF 30 TO 35 KNOT 
WINDS IN THE E TO NE QUADRANT EXTENDING 100-350 NM FROM THE CENTER OF DEEP 
CONVENCTION. A SHIP, 85 NM SW (28.8N 125.6E), REPORTED NW WINDS AT 19 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS). SST ARE ESTIMATED 28-29C AND 
DECREASE TO NEAR 27C OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL PROPAGATE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN 18-30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011730Z.
//
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