ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281951ZJUL2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29JUL22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SONGDA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 28.0N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.3N 130.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 290540Z HIMAWARI INFRARED IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ON 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE NORTHEAST. 
INVEST 95W IS THE ANCHOR POINT OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE WHICH IS MOVING 
TO THE NORTH, WITH A BROAD BAND OF ENHANCED WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH, 
EXTENDING UP TO THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), BUT AT PRESENT OUTFLOW IS RELATIVELY 
RESTRICTED TO A WEAK EASTWARD OR POLEWARD FLOW, WITH SOME PRESSURE 
COMING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPINGING ON 
THE OUTFLOW A BIT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY 
FAIR AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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