ABPW10 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290300Z-290600ZJUL2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZJUL2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 29JUL22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SONGDA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 136.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 136.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.3N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345NM SSE OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LIES FAR TO THE SOUTH, EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES ALONG AN AREA OF A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AXIS, UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE. A 290050Z PARTIAL ASCAT- B PASS CAPTURED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. INVEST 95W IS THE ANCHOR POINT OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE NORTH, WITH A BROAD BAND OF ENHANCED WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH, EXTENDING UP TO THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMERATURES (SSTS), BUT AT PRESENT OUTFLOW IS RELATIVELY RESTRICTED TO A WEAK EASTWARD OR POLEWARD FLOW, WITH SOME PRESSURE COMING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW A BIT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK, SUGGESTING 95W WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS, MOVING OVER OR VERY NEAR OKINAWA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN MOVING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. MODELS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY. FIRSTLY, GFS IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A DISCRETE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN EAST CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 60, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH LESS INTENSIFICATION. SECONDLY, ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE BAND OF NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD AS 95W MOVES NORTH, ULTIMATELY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KOREA ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES BY TAU 72, ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO WARNING STATUS. DISSIPATED AREA IN 1.B.(2). UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(3) TO LOW.// NNNN