ABPW10 PGTW 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/282200Z-290600ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) INVEST 94W LIES IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, ON THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED 
WINDFLOW THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 
20N. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS RELATIVELY ILL-
DEFINED, BUT ANIMATES SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
SERIES OF EARLIER PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL 
LLCC IN FACT EXISTS UNDER FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 94W ARE UP TO 30 KNOTS OR EVEN A BIT 
HIGHER IN THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT WINDS 
ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN 
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH THE 
SYSTEM LYING UNDER AN AREA OF DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK 
TAP INTO SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (28-
29C) SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED 
LLCC AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE MONSOON GYRE WHICH IS SLOWING THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CORE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RELATIVELY 
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST, TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY TRACK 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RYUKUS, SOUTH OF KYUSHU. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS 
MIXED, WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING INTO A STRONG DEPRESSION 
OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM, WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.1N 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 513 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A PARTIAL 281715Z AMSR2 PASS AND AN EARLIER 281330Z 
ASCAT PASS INDICATED THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE OF A FULLY CLOSED 
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 93W. THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE 
PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON GYRE, EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE, 
ELONGATED AREA OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW, WITH WINDS UP TO 25-
30KNOTS, WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED VORTICITY BUT NO DISTINCT 
CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN BUBBLING UP TO THE 
EAST OF THE ASSESSED POSITION BUT REMAINS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED. WHILE 
CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, THE LACK OF A CONSOLIDATING LLCC PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT THE REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNS OF UNEXPECTED CONSOLIDATION 
AND DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25-
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO HIGH. 
DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
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