WTPN22 PGTW 282200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282100Z JUL 22// AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 282100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.1N 137.1E TO 29.4N 131.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: INVEST 94W LIES IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED WINDFLOW THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 20N. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS RELATIVELY ILL- DEFINED, BUT ANIMATES SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF EARLIER PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL LLCC IN FACT EXISTS UNDER FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 94W ARE UP TO 30 KNOTS OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT WINDS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH THE SYSTEM LYING UNDER AN AREA OF DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK TAP INTO SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (28- 29C) SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE WHICH IS SLOWING THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CORE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST, TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN RYUKUS, SOUTH OF KYUSHU. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING INTO A STRONG DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM, WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 292200Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A CANCELLED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W). // NNNN