WTPN21 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051ZJUL22//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 
139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 513 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, A PARTIAL 281715Z AMSR2 PASS AND AN EARLIER 281330Z ASCAT 
PASS INDICATED THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE OF A FULLY CLOSED CIRCULATION 
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 93W. THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A 
MONSOON GYRE, EMBEDDED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE, ELONGATED AREA 
OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW, WITH WINDS UP TO 25-30KNOTS, WHICH IS 
PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED VORTICITY BUT NO DISTINCT CIRCULATION. DEEP 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN BUBBLING UP TO THE EAST OF THE 
ASSESSED POSITION BUT REMAINS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED. WHILE CONDITIONS 
REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE 
LACK OF A CONSOLIDATING LLCC PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS 
TIME. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION OF 
ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA 
CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNS OF UNEXPECTED CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
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