ABIO10 PGTW 281530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/281530Z-281800ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.3S 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM 
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 281304Z 37GH COLOR COMPOSITE GMI PARTIAL PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WARPING AROUND THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 34 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.1 TO HIGH.//
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