ABIO10 PGTW 271800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/271800Z- 281800ZJUL2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 93.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS HIDDEN BENEATH THE CONVECTION. A 271509Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WIND FIELDS AROUND THE SYSTEM WITH IMBEDDED SECTIONS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A BUBBLE OF FAVORABLE (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, REMAINING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AN ACTIVE MJO OVER THE AREA IS HELPING FUEL THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG WESTERLIES TO AID IN THE ROTATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 95S OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEFORE HEADING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN