WTPN21 PGTW 271200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 113.2W TO 14.2N 117.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271207Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 113.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 113.4W, 
APPROXIMATELY 1021 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFARED SATTELITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO 
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE INVEST 
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
GENERAL AGRREEMENT THAT 98E WILL TRACK WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
281200Z.
//
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